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Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - MEDEAS (Guiding European Policy toward a low-carbon economy. Modelling Energy system Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraints)

Teaser

Summary

The transition to a low carbon economy needs to achieve multiple aims: competitiveness, protection of the environment, creation of quality jobs, and social welfare. Thus policy-makers and other key stakeholders require tools that need to focus beyond the energy sector by including these other domains of economy, society and the environment. Currently, most available tools lack integration of these important areas despite being tightly connected to the energy sector. Moreover, current energy modelling tools often lack documentation, transparency and have been developed for a specialized insider audience, which makes validation and comparison of results as well as independent review impossible.

Our project aims to solve the current needs of integration and transparency by developing a leading-edge policy modelling tool based on WoLiM, TIMES and LEAP models and incorporating Input-Output Analysis, that allows for accounting of environmental, social and economic impacts. The modular design of the tool will take into account the necessary flexibility to deal with different levels and interests of stakeholders at great sectorial and spatial detail. Finally, transparency will be achieved through an open access freeware distribution of the model based on the open access programming language (Python), providing a detailed user manual, addressed to a wider non-specialist audience, and including free internet courses and learning materials.

The MEDEAS project aims at providing a tool to help policy makers in the transition to a low carbon sustainable energy system by 2050. The structure is twofold: modelling based analysis and policy implementation issues. To this end, the proposal is structured in 8 Work Packages to provide such a tool and analysis to the energy system transformation and impacts roadmap.

Work performed

In the first 36 months of the project the work carried out has involved mainly:
â€¢ Construction of the MEDEAS database and periodic updates (see the MEDEAS data management plan for details).
â€¢ Analysis of the key variables/parameters, and main relationships between them and definition of necessary variables for models comparison, sensitivity analysis and models cross-comparison.
â€¢ Release of MEDEAS models: World, EU and Austria and Bulgaria, to analyse the energy system in the framework of Renewable Transition (RT). The Python version of the World model (pymedeas_w) has also been released.
â€¢ Definition, construction and refinement of the MEDEAS scenarios
â€¢ Evaluation of barriers, challenges and strategies for the Renewable Transition in the framework of MEDEAS scenarios.

Database:
The MEDEAS database and DBMS has also been improved and continuously documented in the second reporting period (M18-36), and periodic updates (each 6M) allowed improving the model projections uncertainty, particularly in what concerns the country level projections for comparison with TIMES and LEAP.

Model:
In the period M18-M36, work followed by releasing the models at the lower geographical levels and also releasing the open source python model, pymedeas_w, in the World geographical domain. The translation of the model to Python has allowed the testing and debugging. This has resulted in an improved model in both Vensim and Python versions.

Scenarios:
The scenarios designed in MEDEAS, consider three levels of time evolution (three timelines) which have been named as: Business as Usual (BAU), Mid-Level Transition (MLT) and Optimal Transition (OT). OT scenario supposes that the RT starts as soon and faster as possible, only limited by physical constraints, so the ratio of implementation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) grows to achieve the objectives outlined in SET-Plan and Energy Roadmap. MLT supposes that the ratio of RES implementation is maintained as the current one till 2030 and then a rapid change in the RES deployment is supposed. Finally, BAU scenario supposes that the ratio of RES development remains constant and the same values than 2016 till 2050.

The constraint of emissions (carbon budget from IPCC) has been considered, and analytical curves have been compared with the models outputs (M18-36) to find the combination of parameters that could fit the emissions curves theoretically projected. From the range of values of characteristic variables, the more plausible are selected, to allow cross-comparison of models (at EU and country) in the projections future evolution of the energy system. In parallel of the parameterization chosen and plausibility analysis, the refinement of the MEDEAS scenarios focusing in BAU and OLT is work in progress. The analysis of the challenges and impacts done in this period allows a tuned parameterization and the inclusion in the model of more (final) functionalities at all geographical levels. All these results and the remaining analysis of challenges will be translated in policy advice, which will be collected in the White Book of policy recommendations.

Final results

The impacts of the project can be split in two main areas:
1.- Impact of the model as a tool:
In the second reporting period the translation to the model to python has been conducted as expected, and in month 26, a beta version of the model has been released publicly. After this release and as a result of the interaction with the model users, a new, improved version of python model (pymedeas_w) has been publicly released in month 34. This new pymedeas_w version includes a new Graphical User Interface (GUI) for plotting the model outputs, which eases the analysis of the outputs.

2.- The research results that have been and will be produced using the MEDEAS models and scenarios.
In the second reporting period (M36) MEDEAS had significant advances by providing key results in the evaluation of challenges and barriers through the use of the MEDEAS model at EU level within the framework of scenarios. In particular, energy grid design, transport electrification, gas infrastructure and efficiency have been explored. Results show that without additional measures (probably encouraged from the public sector) which enhance the renewable deployment and efficiency, it will not be possible to cover 2050 electricity consumption from RES. The costs of the transition have been also evaluated. Such costs are analysed in four main areas: energetic costs, raw material costs, social costs, and economic costs. Energy costs have been evaluated from the point of view of net energy costs for the energy transition (using the EROI concept, now implemented endogenously in the model).

The results of the project have been disseminated through different activities: Newsletters, webpage news, board of stakeholders and stakeholders meetings and dissemination through media. The impact among the network aims to be enhanced by a new MEDEAS page in Facebook (started in September 2018), which already has 123 followers and also keeping Twiter, Research Gate and Linkedin project accounts, updated/active. Moreover, in this period there have been released 3 Newsletters and the list of interested and engaged stakeholders has also been enlarged.
Finally, the project has had high impact in the media by the dedication of an entire TV program about the project in the Catalan TV (TV3) in December 2017. More impact is expected through the publication of scientific papers, the project documentary views and the Massive Open Online Course to be released in the final reporting period.