Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - SET-Nav (Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation)

Teaser

The European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) is a central element in Europe’s approach to combat climate change. The SET‐Plan has been aiming to accelerate the development and deployment of low‐carbon technologies for the past decade, seeking to improve new...

Summary

The European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) is a central element in Europe’s approach to combat climate change. The SET‐Plan has been aiming to accelerate the development and deployment of low‐carbon technologies for the past decade, seeking to improve new technologies and bring down costs by coordinating national research efforts and helping to finance projects.
The SET-Nav project (www.set-nav.eu), is based on three pillars (ref. image 1) and contributes to the above by supporting strategic decision making in Europe’s energy sector, enhancing innovation towards a clean, secure and efficient energy system. Our strategic policy analysis encompassed a dual approach, combining detailed bottom‐up ‘case studies’ (ref. image 2) linked to SET Plan Key Actions & Priorities with holistic ‘transformation pathways’. Based on the lessons learnt from the case studies and using the full suite of modelling resources, we then conducted our own independent analysis of pathways for a deep decarbonisation of Europe until 2050 (ref. image 3). We assessed the drivers and scenario dimensions that affect the broad set of applicable decarbonisation options under distinct framework conditions.
Our findings support the further development of the SET-Plan and its implementation by continuous stakeholder engagement. They offer a bandwidth of solutions as well as key insights alongside the SET‐Nav main modelling perspectives: demand side, energy supply and infrastructure, and the macroeconomic effects.
In conclusion, SET‐Nav recommends strengthening the following key priorities in the SETPlan:
- Directed innovation efforts within the SET Plan portfolio should be more balanced across the full portfolio of priority areas. Currently, the portfolio is weighted towards renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable transport. Greater consistency is also needed among the different innovation activities supported by the SET Plan to ensure the innovation system works effectively.
- Regarding the different sectors, the main priorities for further research and public support on the demand side are decentralised heat supply and heat pumps. Furthermore, to decarbonise industry, extending the ETS with a minimum price as well as expanding public RD&I funding are important measures.
- In terms of energy infrastructure, electricity network development for integrating new renewables generation is a prerequisite, as is preparing grids for the integration of large volumes of distributed energy resources and for new forms of energy storage. From the supply perspective, our analysis shows that direct electrification should be favoured wherever reasonable as it is more efficient and leads to fewer requirements on energy infrastructures.
- Efficient decarbonisation via direct or indirect electrification requires efficient linkages between the energy markets by monitoring close to real‐time carbon content of energy carriers and emissions.

With this, we intend to provide guidance, navigating through critical uncertainties in the efforts to decarbonise our energy system.

Work performed

PILLAR I: Enhancing modelling capacities to increase understanding of interactions and interdependencies between actors, technologies and policy interventions in Europe’s energy system
Modellers have worked not only on updating their models, but even more so on augmenting their models such that they better address the key challenges identified for each of the case studies. Model linkage enhancements have proven to be extremely important on analysing and implementing the SET-Nav pathways. The project has accomplished a unique modelling exercise to address the multiple dimensions of the energy transition by extending models boundaries through new soft-linkage approaches.

Pillar II: Providing model-based decision support for enhancing energy innovation towards a clean, secure and efficient energy system
- Case studies concerning specific policy questions:
In a first step, modelling teams have extended and calibrated their models, reviewed their input data and developed case studies setup. Then, the case study results and reporting were at the forefront of setting up the framework for the pathways analysis and implementation. The successful case study implementation carried out significant lessons learned to ensure synchronization among coupled models for the pathway analysis.
- Pathway development and assessment:
Four distinct pathways were set up in order to explore the transformation processes that meet the climate targets agreed upon in Paris in 2015. They were set up along two uncertainty dimensions, i.e. the level of cooperation and the degree of (de)centralisation resulting in four comparatively extreme future directions: Diversification, Directed Vision, Localisation and National Champions.
Modelling, assessing and comparing these four pathways delivered important insights on the consequences and technical/political needs that come along with a deep decarbonisation under different (extreme) framework conditions. The challenges are significant, and the need for change appears enormous. The results however also proof that a deep decarbonisation is feasible, even if framework conditions appear at first glance less promising.
- Incorporating the needs of innovation system processes:
Analysis of innovation system processes in WP3 has informed a critical evaluation of the current SET Plan portfolio in terms of its balance, consistency and alignment. This has generated a series of policy recommendations for strengthening the diversity and effectiveness of the SET Plan in the short-to-medium term. Econometric analysis of the EU\'s innovation system historically has identified significant determinants of knowledge generation and innovation actor collaboration within the EU over the period 2000-2015.

Pillar III: Ensuring a proper research orientation and a high impact through a continuous and in-depth stakeholder involvement and dialogue
SET-Nav organised a multitude of stakeholder events, i.e. five policy workshops, five modelling workshops, a final policy event and a final conference held in Brussels involving a total of more than 1200 stakeholders. Additionally, SET-Nav organised three events in collaboration with other H2020 initiatives, inter alia the Energy Modelling Platform (EMP-E) 2018 conference where we acted as the lead organizer.
During the project duration of SET-NAV, partners have developed more than 20 scientific publications as well as eleven issue papers intended to answer specific questions.
For an appealing dissemination of results from case studies and the pathways, we created the SET-NAV Scenario Explorer. This open data platform provides interactive features and supports pre-defined workspaces to guide users to specific sections of our results.

Final results

The implementation of the SET-Plan and transition to an efficient, low carbon energy system is among the key challenges for the coming years and decades. SET-Nav contributed to this overarching strategic goal by providing science-based decision support to policymakers and other stakeholders:
Our collection of case study reports covering a variety of SET-Plan themes provides useful insights into the different fields of the energy sector. The transition pathways inform the policy dialogue and provide insights into future perspectives and ways to achieve decarbonisation.

Website & more info

More info: http://www.set-nav.eu/.