Report
Teaser, summary, work performed and final results
Periodic Reporting for period 2 - IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes)
Teaser
Impacts of extreme weather and climate events are frequently getting abundant media attention, and for a good reason: societal disruptions from excessive storms, heatwaves, heavy precipitation events, floodings and damage to production capacity and infrastructure can be very...
Summary
Impacts of extreme weather and climate events are frequently getting abundant media attention, and for a good reason: societal disruptions from excessive storms, heatwaves, heavy precipitation events, floodings and damage to production capacity and infrastructure can be very large, leading to increasing economic damage and loss of human lives. The European water sector is very diverse and deeply integrated into many aspects of society, including drinking water supply, coastal defence, hydropower generation and agricultural production both within and outside Europe.
The supply of reliable and well-tuned information about upcoming hydroclimatic events, both as short- to medium-range forecasts and as climate projections, can significantly increase the sector’s ability to cope with the extreme conditions. A wide diversity in uptake of hydroclimatic information exists across the water sector. Some sectoral disciplines have a long-standing track record of professional uptake of hydro-meteorological forecasts and climate change scenarios, while other sectors do absorb this information in a more preliminary status. For all sectors a large improvement can and must be achieved in the quality of the forecasts and scenarios, the adequate tuning to the practical applications, and the degree to which this information is indeed supporting the important decisions that lead to an increase in the resilience of the specific application and the sector as a whole.
The Research and Innovation Action IMPREX (IMproving PRojections and management of hydrological EXtremes) targets at multiple components of the chain between hydro-meteorological forecasting and scenario production to sectoral uptake and decision support. In a hybrid approach involving both model developers and case study oriented practitioners and their advisors, improvements to this information chain are developed for 6 different water related subsectors.
Work performed
The work performed can be grouped into 3 main components of the information chain. Progress per component includes:
(a) the hydro-meteorological model development
New datasets and indices have been developed and disseminated within the IMPREX community and widely used.
(b) the sectoral application
The sectoral analysis has been focusing on the needs of the stakeholders. The sectors have established a clear picture of the needs and vulnerabilities of the users regarding weather and climate information. First results with integrating weather and climate information in the decision support chains are promising.
(c) the sectoral integration and development of novel concepts
Novel concepts are studied and their value explored in various case studies, including the integration across areas and sectors.
Final results
Production of sectoral narratives
For each of the hydrological sectors addressed in IMPREX narratives of use and appreciation of weather/climate information by individuals in that sector is presented. The narratives form a demonstration of the added value of IMPREX to the stakeholders, and will be included as guidance material in the final IMPREX Risk Outlook.
Improved seasonal precipitation forecasts
A method to improve GLOSEA5 seasonal forecasts for precipitation is developed, based on the utilization of observed relationships between rainfall and the large-scale climate variability indicator NAO. With this “postprocessing†step the usefulness of seasonal forecasts has been increased.
High-resolution future weather scenarios
A “surrogate warming†experiment has demonstrated the applicability of high-resolution convection resolving regional climate models for future climate applications. The case-study oriented approach developed here allows credible assessment of the degree to which extreme events will materialize in a future climate context.
Tool to detect sources of limitations of seasonal forecasting systems
A tool was developed that allows a thorough assessment of the most important limitation to seasonal predictability of hydrological extremes: either the initial state of the system, of the quality of the forecast model and forcings. This tool allows an objective decision on preferred strategies and investments to improve our ability to make action-oriented and skillful seasonal hydrological forecasts .
Evaluation of seasonal forecasting systems for sectoral applications
In various activities an intensive evaluation has been carried out of the new seasonal forecasting system SYS5 (ECMWF), and of the GLOSEA and SYS4 forecasting systems.
Analysis of compound events
A thorough evaluation of the role of compound events for the water management of a number of regional water authorities has been carried out, leading to guidance on altered risk assessment procedures for regional water safety and/or water resources policies.
Risk based water allocation scheme
A revised water resource allocation scheme has been designed, altering the current risk assessments for water allocation problems in the Netherlands and Spain. Instead of current and future discharge, the current/future risk of damage due to insufficient water allocation is used as guiding principle.
Probabilistic flood damage modeling
A novel probabilistic flood damage model allows the assessment of flood risk using a much better picture of the actual damage risk of floods.
Economic value of using forecasts for hydropower generation and irrigation planning.
A systematic evaluation of the economic value of using perfect or operational forecasts for hydropower operation has been carried out, showing that an economic gain of a few percent of annual turnover is achievable, depending on the local conditions.
Water navigation oriented probabilistic forecasting system
A pre-operational probabilistic forecasting system has been launched to support decision making by stakeholders in the Rhine navigation sector, and are actively used by various stakeholders in the area.
Services for Drinking Water Treatment Plants
A number of different innovate services have been developed for stakeholders in the urban water sector and drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) managers: short-range forecasts of turbidity of inflow to reduce cost of chemical treatments, a forecasting system for algae growth to reduce health risks, and a series of climate change projections focused on future droughts and algae development.
Evaluation of usefulness of seasonal forecasts for water resource planning
Seasonal forecast information has been inserted into operational water allocation decision support systems in the Jucar area and evaluated. The role of hydrological memory dominates the information supply from the seasonal forecasting systems.
Impact-based drought indices for droug
Website & more info
More info: http://www.imprex.eu.