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Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CAT (Climbing the Asian Water Tower)

Teaser

Summary

The water cycle in the Himalaya is poorly understood because of its extreme topography that results in complex interactions between climate and water stored in snow and glaciers. Hydrological extremes in the greater Himalayas regularly cause great damage, e.g. the Pakistan floods in 2010, while the Himalayas also supply water to over 25% of the global population. So, the stakes are high and an accurate understanding of the Himalayan water cycle is imperative. The discovery of the monumental error on the future of the Himalayan glaciers in the fourth assessment report of the IPCC is exemplary for the scientific misconceptions which are associated to the Himalayan glaciers and its water supplying function. The underlying reason is the huge scale gap that exists between studies for individual glaciers that are not representative of the entire region and hydrological modelling studies that represent the variability in Himalayan climates. In CAT, I will bridge this knowledge gap and explain spatial differences in Himalayan glacio-hydrology at an unprecedented level of detail by combining high-altitude observations, the latest remote sensing technology and state-of-the-art atmospheric and hydrological models. I will generate a high-altitude meteorological observations and will employ drones to monitor glacier dynamics. The data will be used to parameterize key processes in hydro-meteorological models such as cloud resolving mechanisms, glacier dynamics and the ice and snow energy balance. The results will be integrated into atmospheric and glacio-hydrological models for two representative, but contrasting catchments using in combination with the systematic inclusion of the newly developed algorithms. CAT will unambiguously reveal spatial differences in Himalayan glacio-hydrology necessary to project future changes in water availability and extreme events. As such, CAT may provide the scientific base for climate change adaptation policies in this vulnerable region.

Work performed

The project has made significant progress towards reaching its objectives in the first 30 months. Field expeditions to the Himalayas were organized and key datasets regarding glacier properties, snow, hydrology and meteorology were collected successfully. Important scientific advances were made: (i) using drone data and glacier observations important insight was gained in the functioning of debris covered glaciers and the high altitude water cycle, (ii) using a high resolution weather model it was assessed how valley scale weather patterns are functioning, (iii) it was assessed how an increase in regional irrigation may impact glacier change and (iv) at the larger scale it was quantified how climate change will impact the glacier in High Mountain Asia in the coming century and in particular what the Paris 2015 climate agreement would imply. The project already resulted in large number of peer reviewed scientific articles and in addition a scientific documentary was produced (https://youtu.be/zTANlKJOMZM).

Final results

The project has already resulted in several groundbreaking insights in high mountain Asia, in particular regarding the impact of the Paris climate agreement and the role of irrigation on the glaciers. During the remainder of the project it is expected to integrate the glacier and atmospheric results into a larger scale hydrological model and to assess future changes and contrasts in (future) glacio-hydrological response to climate change. To this end new model techniques will be developed and integrated with the high altitude observed field data and remote sensing datasets.