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Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - REINVENT (Realising Innovation in Transitions for Decarbonisation)

Teaser

Summary

By the end of the 2nd reporting period, the following work has been completed:
- Decarbonisation innovations database with more than 100 really existing cases (across sectors and value chains)
- In-depth case study analysis of 18 innovations (across sectors and value chains)
- Development of archetypal innovation pathways for decarbonisation (cross-sectoral)
- Using IMAGE and WISEE models to analyse decarbonisation scenarios

Work performed

During the 2nd reporting period some of the key tasks of the REINVENT work were completed, resulting in the decarbonisation innovations database, reports on decarbonisation in the four sectors and 18 in-depth case studies across sectors and value chains. In addition, the innovation biographies have been completed, EU decarbonisation scenarios for industry analysed and a total of five workshops with stakeholders organised.
The sectoral mappings reveal the complexity and diversity of value chains across the sectors, decarbonisation potentials associated with different pathways, as well as differences in power, agency, materiality and geographies due the different structures of these sectors. For example, polymers are produced in large bulk by petrochemical companies that are very close to the oil industry. These polymers are used by compounders and converters to make products that are rarely recycled but end up in landfills, incineration and as litter. There is no vision for how to decarbonise plastics and governance capacities are undeveloped.
The decarbonisation innovations database gives an overview of more than 100 already existing innovations across sectors and value chains, while the case studies provide an in-depth analysis of a selection of innovations. The case studies demonstrate a wide variety of barriers and drivers for decarbonisation innovations. A common finding is that climate mitigation is only one of many drivers, embedded in broader ideas, strategic orientations, branding, the condition of existing assets, or requirements on investments.

The key sector results from REINVENT research have so far been the following:
1) PLASTICS
There is no vision of decarbonisation in the sector and several (partly conflicting) pathways exist, namely reduced use, recycling, fewer types of plastics and bio-based plastics. Incumbents are in control of the sector. There is also a lot of public pressure on plastics, but mostly around marine littering rather than the carbon emissions associated with making this product.

2) PAPER
Decarbonisation is relatively straightforward via biorefineries and closed loop biogenic carbon economy. The industry is ambivalent about decarbonisation, in view of possibilities of CCS/CCU.

3) STEEL
This is a mature sector, where incumbent in some cases already act as change agents. Visions are forming, ranging from CCS to hydrogen steel-making. Lean circular economy important in this sector.

4) MEAT AND DAIRY
There is an active public awareness and debate surrounding carbon emissions of the industry. The visions vary from achieving efficiency in existing practices, technological solutions (such as lab-grown meat) and dietary shifts. New smaller entrants focusing are challenging the industry.

Overall, decarbonisation options in primary production are the following: biobased feedstock and fuels (biogas, charcoal, wood chips, etc.), electricity and hydrogen/carbon dioxide for producing hydrocarbons (e.g., methanol) and carbon capture and storage. Few, if any, co-benefits have been recorded, and materials are likely to become more expensive. Decarbonisation requires potentially a very high electricity demand. However, demand changes can also lead to sectoral decarbonisation.

The integration of sectoral results has led to four archetypal innovation pathways for decarbonisation: technological replacement, demand management, circular economy and process improvement. These pathways can co-exist but can also be in conflict. These pathways each come with their different economic, social and ecological implications, which are also sector dependent. The pathways will be integrated into the modelling work in REINVENT and into further work on wider implications of decarbonisation.

Final results

Studying transitions from within the sectors, and taking whole value chains into account through a new analytical approach has proved to be fruitful during the 2nd reporting period. An important feature is the emergence of new couplings between industrial sectors and with the power system. A key observation is that decarbonisation requires broad and sequential industrial policy strategies and governance approaches coherent with the goal of zero emissions. Policy implications and recommendations will be further developed during period 3 (1 June 2019 to 30 November 2020). We expect that viable decarbonisation pathways will have socioeconomic implications which will also be analysed during period 3.

Policy relevant messages have not yet been analysed for the whole project. However, policy implications can be highlighted from individual scientific publications of REINVENT.
- Perspectives on climate policies (Andersson)
Climate change cuts through policy domains, it is a broad societal and industrial development issue
- Effects on manufacturing, utility and construction industries of a decarbonization of the energy intensive and natural-resources based industries (Andersson)
Cost increase has small effects downstream. Manufacturing innovates but construction industry passes through the costs
- Pluralizing and problematizing carbon finance (Bulkeley et al)
Carbon as commodity in carbon markets vs carbon as asset and exposure to carbon risk
- Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies (van Vuuren et al)
IAM and LCA based analysis. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts
- Meat, dairy, and more: analysis of material, energy and greenhouse gas flows of the meat & dairy supply chains in the EU28 for 2016 (aan den Toorn et al)
A mapping of input and output in meat&dairy that allows future analysis of changes against a baseline
- Understanding the protein transition: the rise of plant-based meat substitutes (Tziva et al)
Documents phases in the development of substitutes, and the role of informal institutions and consumers (in the absence of government policy)
- Politics and the plastic crisis: A review throughout the plastic life cycle (Stripple et al)
Debate focus on pollution and disposal. From plastic bags to â€œsingle use plasticsâ€. Proposed solutions mainly around international conventions and voluntary circular economy initiatives.
- Adopting hydrogen direct reduction for the Swedish steel industry: a TIS study (Hansen et al)
Allows for geographical decoupling of reduction and steelmaking but requires commitment to infrastructure investment to capture this window of opportunity. Needs attention to input (energy, capital) and output (green market)