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Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CHE (CO2 Human Emissions)

Teaser

Summary

CHE is bringing together European expertise and a consolidated approach to building an operational anthropogenic CO2 emission monitoring & verification support capacity. CHE partners are at the forefront of developments in the compilation of emission inventories, the observation of the carbon cycle from ground-based and satellite measurements, the process modelling of the carbon cycle, atmospheric transport modelling, and data assimilation and inversion systems. There will be four main areas of work covering: observations, emission inventories, modelling and inversion systems.
The central questions that CHE will address are:
â€¢ What does it take to have a combined bottom-up and top-down estimation system capable of distinguishing the anthropogenic part of the CO2 budget from the natural fluxes?
â€¢ How can we make the first steps towards such a system that can use the high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite observations to monitor anthropogenic emissions at the required time scales?
â€¢ And what does it take to transform a research system into a fully operational monitoring support capacity?
A mature and credible monitoring system for anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires the integration of all available information streams, which is a complex undertaking, as illustrated.
The CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) project started in October 2017, bringing together a consortium of 22 European partners and lasting for over three years.
The initiative acts as a bridge between the European Commission and its CO2 Task Force, space agencies and related industries, the CO2 science community, and the Copernicus Services. The project aims to bring together relevant expertise to develop the science and to scope out the necessary architecture for a European CO2 monitoring capacity.

Work performed

With the CHE tier-1 2015 global baseline simulation being delivered, a common base for high-resolution global estimates of CO2 concentrations and emissions has been established that can feed into the global to local information chain and permit the across-project interactions (with VERIFY and SCARBO) as the baseline simulations are freely accessible .
These Tier-1 simulations will provide boundary conditions to continental and regional simulations and are also valuable for setting an internal benchmark to build an improved tier-2 series. Tier-2 simulations are in preparation and will include improved modelling systems (e.g. the new ECMWF-IFS model cycle 45r1 ), improved description of anthropogenic emissions (e.g. with an EDGAR-based monthly surface emissions, and TNO disaggregation at regional European scale). The European-scale simulations have been prepared and tested.
A significant step forward for estimations of the uncertainty/precision is achieved via use of an ensemble system using the IPCC-based uncertainty-ranges and seven groups of emissions, following a study in WP3 and including the meteorological transport and emissions uncertainty estimates. The ensemble work accomplished is also preparatory to data assimilation activities as it allows to disentangle the transport and the surface emissions signal in producing a given CO2 concentration at a given location.
The Data Assimilation work has completed the preparatory steps on infrastructure and standardisation of the input/output that are important but not very visual yet (CHE report D1.1 ). Methodological progress within the data assimilation components (e.g. within CarbonTracker approach and with covariant surface fluxes).
The crucial role of observations appears in all aspects of the building block, and highlighted in the validation reports for the CHE tier-1 (CHE report D2.2 ). For those areas of the research, connections with VERIFY project team and with ICOS team provide the way forward, with also dedicated reports within CHE (CHE report D4.1 ).
These connections across projects have been fostered by the liaisons activities in WP6 and will be strengthened further in 2019.

Final results

The expected impacts of the CHE project are all linked to its function as a bridge between the European Commission and its CO2 Task Force, space agencies and related industries, the CO2 science community, and the Copernicus Services. The capacity building aspects of CHE will focus on strengthening the links between these sectors and use this to scope the required architecture of a future CO2 emission monitoring system. In addition, CHE will bring innovation to start connecting the various building blocks (observations, emission inventories, modelling and inversion systems) that will form the future monitoring system and exploit synergies and strengths of the various (inverse) modelling methodologies that are already available.
As such, it is important to note that the CHE impact is not directly related to end users. The impact results from making future operational services possible, which will then serve several categories of end users. These future end users can be found in the policy sector, the science community and the private sector, as clearly outlined in the European Commissionâ€™s CO2 report. However, liaising with final end-users is also required in designing a system that is supposed to meet their needs by 2025 or 2030. CHE will achieve this through interaction with the Task Force as well as through the involvement of project partners in several of these user sectors. In addition, CHE has established strong link with the VERIFY project, which has a full work package to assess the current and future needs of inventory institutions and of the international climate process. CHE representatives actively engage in these discussions.
A clear set of outputs will be produced in reports summarizing the current state-of-affairs, including a gap analysis, providing guidance on needed developments including first innovative steps for current systems and system integration, and the operational aspects of the various needed components. These reports will be summarized in the form of Strategic Research Agenda (roadmaps) documents that the European Commission and its Task Force as well as ESAâ€™s anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring Mission Advisory Group can use to support the decision-making process for enhancing our current capacity to observe and understand the variability of CO2 human emissions and monitor their temporal evolution. In addition, datasets will be provided to support relevant studies outside the CHE project. These datasets can also serve a wider user community, involved in space system design, ground-based observation network design, and science studies in general.
The long-term impact of CHE will be through scoping the detailed requirements of the prototype system and through mobilising and organising the required efforts within Europe. This will form the starting point for the foreseen follow-up H2020 activity, which is expected to build the systems needed for a pre-operational Copernicus service. This process is very similar to for instance the development of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), which was scoped through the EU-funded GEMS project and ESA-funded PROMOTE project and developed into a pre-operational service through the series of MACC projects. The CAMS process has shown that this is a very successful pathway to define the architecture of a new service, engage with both the science and user communities, and successfully turn science into services.