Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources)

Teaser

It is critical to understand how climate change may affect Europe´s fish stocks and farmed species. For fished species, important biological processes may be negatively or positively impacted via changes in: 1) reproductive success, 2) population dynamics, 3) migration /...

Summary

It is critical to understand how climate change may affect Europe´s fish stocks and farmed species. For fished species, important biological processes may be negatively or positively impacted via changes in: 1) reproductive success, 2) population dynamics, 3) migration / distribution patterns, and 4) interactions between species. Threats (and potential benefits) to aquaculture include both direct effects (warming, low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, freshwater availability, acidification of ocean waters) and potentially indirect effects (harmful algal blooms, pathogens, jellyfish blooms) of climate change.
The EU currently imports more than half of its finfish leading to a large (13 billion €) annual trade deficit. The Europe 2020 strategy recognizes that ‘climate-ready’ solutions for sustainable growth of the European aquatic food production sector are needed to help maintain food security, increase future competitiveness and support the Blue Growth of European aquaculture and fisheries sectors.
CERES is designed to provide a step change in the knowledge, tools and technologies needed to successfully adapt European fisheries and aquaculture sectors in marine and inland waters to anticipated climate change. CERES advances a cause-and-effect understanding of how climate change will influence Europe’s most important fish and shellfish resources and the economic activities depending on them. This will enhance the resilience and support the development of adaptive management and governance systems in these Blue Growth sectors.

Work performed

During the first 36 months of the project, CERES has:
1) Provide projections of the physical and biogeochemical impacts of climate change (CC) on European marine and inland waters using two IPCC scenarios.
2) Created PESTLE (political, environmental, social, technological, legal and economic) scenarios which map onto the projected physical and biogeochemical impacts of CC. These ‘CERES Scenarios” have been regionalized via stakeholder engagement.
3) Reviewed the direct effects of CC on key fishery and aquaculture species (fish and shellfish) including a thorough “semi-systematic literature review” and a “Gap Analysis”. A meta-analysis yielded information on cause-effect relationships.
4) Compiled and statistically analysed long-term data sets on valuable fisheries targets to help disentangle the effects of CC and fishing on historical developments of 12 stocks/groups.
5) Improved existing (or created new) models and performed simulations of the biological impacts of CC scenarios on European fisheries targets (12 models, >40 stocks). Changes projected from different types of models often agreed adding confidence to these estimates.
6) Examined the indirect effects of CC on aquaculture sector including the ability to provide farms advanced warning of harmful jellyfish or algal blooms and mapping the medium- and long-term changes in the risks of disease from pathogens infecting fish and shellfish.
7) Enhanced, re-calibrated and applied a number of models (from individual growth to whole farm production) to make region-specific projections of the direct (and in some cases indirect) effects of CC on the most valuable European aquaculture species (5 finfish and 3 shellfish) taking into account specific culture techniques (> 10 regions/sites).
8) Updated modelling tools to project the medium-term (to 2050) economic consequences of different CC scenarios to various fleets within mixed- or single-species fisheries.
9) Created ‘Typical Farms’ to calculate economic consequences of different CC scenarios to specific aquaculture production techniques in specific regions.
10) Examined how scenarios of CC will impact the global trade of fishmeal and fish oil, a critical economic link between the aquaculture and fisheries sectors.
9) Used a variety of engagement techniques (questionnaires, face-to-face interviews) to obtain sector-specific stakeholder perspectives on the risks and opportunities of CC needed for qualitative as well as quantitative analyses.
10) Organized 25 “storylines” clearly communicating CERES activities on specific sectors in specific regions and species to better engage industry and policy stakeholders.
11) Started vulnerability assessments of European Fisheries and Aquaculture sectors to climate change.
12) Forged strong links to national and international CC programs helping to ensure the delivery of bottom-up (industry led) and top-down (policy) solutions for the European fisheries and aquaculture sectors.
Participated in > 280 outreach events including 42 regional, national and/or international stakeholder (industry) events, 22 policy events and 166 science events to inform various communities of our activities and progress.

Final results

CERES is designed to have three broad outcomes contributing substantial benefits and societal impact for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors: 1) reduce uncertainties and risk, 2) anticipate, prepare and adapt, and 3) identify new opportunities.
1) Expected changes in temperature and other important factors affecting fish and shellfish have been projected using state-of-the art models and are now available for European fisheries and aquaculture sites. Results of these tools are being compared with those from additional regional and global modelling efforts conducted alongside CERES to reduce uncertainties in estimates of effects of climate change on habitats. Advancements in biological and bioeconomic models will also reduce uncertainty.
2) Risk assessment and management tools will reduce risks by providing clear options to fisheries and aquaculture based on well-defined short-, medium- and long-term combined climate/economic/governance scenarios. Stakeholders’ perspectives have been used to create and /or verify this risk mapping. Other tools, such as early warning systems for jellyfish and harmful algal blooms (in specific locations) and medium-term disease risk mapping will mitigate risks to aquaculture.
3) CERES will make available tools and a list of planning options for fishing fleets, and farms to support production scenarios for different key species. Outputs for two time-horizon scenarios (medium- and long-term) allow adaptation strategies to include current policies and industry practices as well as planning which may require more substantial changes to infrastructure. CERES will deliver information needed to support decision-making for different scenarios by licensing authorities, producers, and investors with respect to target species; spatial management and site selection; and different production methods.
Economic losses and social consequences - CERES delivers bio-economic models designed to estimate the climate-related economic losses or potential gains for both fisheries and aquaculture. The combination of bio-economic predictions with the risk and solution mapping delivers an analysis of the social consequences of these economic losses.
Scientific advice- The CERES consortium integrates a number of partners that regularly provide scientific advice to regulators and international bodies such as ICES, OSPAR, and FAO, and who are members of research organisations such as EFARO and EIFAAC. These links have been successfully utilized in the 1st and 2nd Reporting phases of the project.

Website & more info

More info: https://ceresproject.eu/.