Report
Teaser, summary, work performed and final results
Periodic Reporting for period 1 - SUPREMA (SUpport for Policy RElevant Modelling of Agriculture)
Teaser
Impact assessments in the areas of agriculture are (partly) based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are becoming more and more interrelated. Hence, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect them or redesign them to deliver on an...
Summary
Impact assessments in the areas of agriculture are (partly) based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are becoming more and more interrelated. Hence, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect them or redesign them to deliver on an increasing variety of policy objectives, and to explore future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe. SUPREMA comes to address this challenge by proposing a meta-platform that supports modelling groups linked already through various other platforms and networks. SUPREMA should help close the gaps between expectations of policy makers and the actual capacity of models to deliver relevant policy analysis.
SUPREMA supports modelling groups help close the gaps between expectations of policy makers and the actual capacity of models to deliver relevant policy analysis, addressing societal challenges towards European agriculture (climate change and low carbon economy, circular economy, land use, SDGs). The meta-platform, the enhanced linked system of existing core modelling and some key applications melt down in a roadmap for future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe.
The overall objectives of SUPREMA are:
1. A SUPREMA roadmap of future directions for modelling will be developed. The needs for improving the capacity of current models or a linked system of models to deliver on an increasing variety of policy objectives are defined.
2. An enhanced and strengthened SUPREMA model family will be created. The performance and capacity of current tools, individually and as a linked system, will be enhanced in a few focus areas for integrating new policy challenges (e.g. climate change, SDGs, supply chains).
3. Future directions of modelling in agriculture will be explored and tested through scenario applications involving the SUPREMA models in a coordinated fashion.
4. A SUPREMA meta-platform will be established, to share and discuss the findings of the work with existing model platforms, research communities, and policy makers.
Work performed
SUPREMA defined the needs for future model development and also prioritised model improvements and model related actions. An early stock-taking in SUPREMA identified challenges which might be covered during the project, including (i) coverage of future global food demand (trade, generation of income and its distribution across different income groups; (ii) environmental constraints, like future water and land availability and quality, and climate mitigation and adaptation; (iii) strategies towards a more bio-based economy; and (iv) increasing concentration and the ongoing structural change in the food value chain are also determining income at farm level. In addition, topics are also defined for future consideration, including:
• Rural versus urban development,
• Land abandonment as well as people abandonment as a social element of structural changes across different regions
• Immigration, migrant labour in food chain, coverage of health
• Degradation of resources and adaption technology to fight this development
• Biodiversity
• Internalization of positive and negative externalities
• Calibration and modelling of shocks such as natural disasters and diseases
• Modelling endogenous technical change, the coverage of artificial intelligence as well as the spread of Innovation and new approaches
The defined ‘Needs’ are further explored in WP2 (the tools – Model enhancement and integration) and WP3 (Testing the SUPREMA model family).
Final results
SUPREMA supports modelling groups help close the gaps between expectations of policy makers and the actual capacity of models to deliver relevant policy analysis, addressing societal challenges towards European agriculture (climate change and low carbon economy, circular economy, land use, SDGs). The meta-platform, the enhanced linked system of existing core modelling and some key applications melt down in a roadmap for future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe.
Website & more info
More info: http://www.suprema-project.eu.