Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TE2 GAM 2018 (Technology Evaluator 2 - GAM 2018)

Teaser

The Technology Evaluator (TE) will be monitoring and assessing the environmental and socio-economic impact of the technological results arising from all CS2 activities across all the CS2 instruments. The TE will specifically quantify the expected improvements of the aviation...

Summary

The Technology Evaluator (TE) will be monitoring and assessing the environmental and socio-economic impact of the technological results arising from all CS2 activities across all the CS2 instruments. The TE will specifically quantify the expected improvements of the aviation sector in future scenarios in comparison to baseline scenarios.
The TE will provide feedback to the CS2 instruments to enable the optimisation of their performance.
Technology impact assessments as part of CS2 cover environmental as well as socio-economic impacts with a particular focus on reducing aircraft CO2, NOx and noise emissions by 20-30% compared to ‘state-of-the-art’ aircraft entering into service as from 2014. Where applicable, benefits of CS2 demonstrators and technologies will be monitored against well-defined environmental targets and socio-economic targets of the ACARE Flightpath 2050 and the corresponding goals outlined in the Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda (SRIA).

Work performed

WP0 focused on general project management tasks.
In WP1 the focus was concentrated on call planning and topic descriptions (CFP 9 and 10), discussions on a TE-IS Call for Tender, exchanges with Clean Sky 2 partners on metrics/reference aircraft as well as exchanges with the JU on the TE light projection.
WP2 dealt with the interfaces between the TE and IADPs, ITDs and TAs. Monthly teleconferences took place to exchange on the TE light projection, the “Techno2Models” table, indicators to measure competitiveness, additional noise metrics as well as the preparation of the TE CfP rounds. Specific meetings with SPDs were organised covering topics like climate impact, noise, competitiveness and forecasts &scenarios. A TE-SPD workshop took place end of October. Specific exchange meetings were also held with Eco-design and EASA.
In WP3 work on modelling of 3 concept planes with an expected entry into service in 2050 has been continued. The 19, 150 and 550 passenger aircraft are planned to be integrated with low TRL technologies to avoid overlap with SPD concept planes. Detailed design studies for a small regional hybrid electric vehicle are currently in progress. Plausibility checks with SPD models have been done. Results for the REG 50/70 Seat Multi-mission Reference and Concept Vehicle have been produced. The TLARs for all reference and concept aircraft are nearly completed. Inputs are still expected for the reference compound rotorcraft and for the ultra-advanced long range concept aircraft.
In WP4 a representative set of European airports based on a classification of primary hub, secondary hub and regional airports has been selected in preparation for the 1st assessment. Also the assessment process was defined, i.e. in terms of scope, the main underlying assumptions and the indicators to be used. Eventually a preliminary noise input has been elaborated for the light projection assessment using the noise objectives as starting point.
In WP5 work was carried out for the light projection assessment. For this a simplified world fleet forecast has been produced including concept aircraft replacement scenarios. The environmental impact in terms of emissions was evaluated using the manufacturer´s vehicle objectives and entry into service assumptions for the mainliners and regional fleet. Additionally socio economic analysis was done at global level for the gross value added development and at European level for employment both for the time frame of 2050. A list of potential indicators reflecting competitiveness was elaborated and after a workshop with SPDs established. Connectivity examples in terms of combination of aircraft and car travel times were evaluated using European wide data. In the frame of WP5 CfP05 work was also executed for rotorcraft assessments using 1st model inputs from manufacturers yielding first environmental results for CO2. The increased mobility of fast rotorcraft for oil platform traffic in the North Sea was analysed. Also forecasts for future 2035 Small Air Transport, business jet and rotorcraft fleets were elaborated.
In WP6 a white paper on the TE information system was written and based on this the technical requirements for it defined as being part of the an upcoming cft documentation in 2019.
In WP7 the TE Dissemination and Exploitation plan was defined and an update of TE website done. Additionally animations for the “Omniglobe” spherical projector were implemented and shown at the Tokio airshow 2018 as element for dissemination activities.

Corresponding to the work packages the main milestones in 2018 were as follows:

M1: Collection of SPD objectives table input (31/03/2018)
M2: SPD concept models (31/12/2018)
M3: TE Light projection report (30/06/2018)

Final results

The major achievement of TE in 2018 was the performance of a „Light projection“, in concrete the elaboration of a global forecast followed by simplified impact assessments for emissions, connectivity and economy. The Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking is committed to alleviating environmental impacts of aeronautics and fostering the competitive advantage of the aeronautical industry and supply chain in Europe. In particular, Clean Sky 2 has set-out an ambitious objective to reduce CO2, NOx, and noise emissions by 20 to 30% as compared to the ‘state-of-the-art’ in the year 2014. The light projection report provides an overview of the emission reduction potentials at the level of concept vehicles or demonstrators and their underlying key enabling technologies along with a first appraisal of the expected overall benefits of Clean Sky 2 at fleet level. Based on the global fleet forecast, it can be assumed that by the year 2050 approximately 50% of vehicles might carry major Clean Sky 2 technologies resulting in an overall reduction of 13% in global CO2 and NOx emissions, while passenger numbers will grow from 3.4 billion in 2014 to 12.3 billion in 2050 accompanied by an increase of flights from 32.2 million to 69.3 million in the same time span. Noise reduction potentials, again for the year 2050, are found to range from 10% to 30% in terms of surface area in the vicinity of airports exposed to significant noise levels and to vary between 10% and 45% in terms of population affected. Concerning socio-economic impacts potentially significant benefits for Europe can be expected, for connectivity and here for remote regions, potentially for job creation in the European aeronautics sector, and for direct gross value added from the air transport industry, where we expect a doubling; as well as potential savings of 4.6 billion € (monetised) in terms of 208.5 million tonnes of CO2 not emitted in 2050. The report is concluded by outlining a set of competitiveness indicators for a more rigorous treatment of this particular aspect in future analysis.