SUMO

Supermodeling by combining imperfect models

Coordinatore	MACEDONIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND ARTS    more  Organization address address: Av. Krste Misirkov 2 city: Skopje postcode: 1000 contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Ljupco Cognome: Kocarev Email: send email Telefono: +389 2 2733016 Fax: +389 2 3235423
Nazionalità Coordinatore	Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of [MK]
Totale costo	2˙849˙592 €
EC contributo	2˙135˙673 €
Programma	FP7-ICT Specific Programme "Cooperation": Information and communication technologies
Code Call	FP7-ICT-2009-C
Funding Scheme	CP
Anno di inizio	2010
Periodo (anno-mese-giorno)	2010-10-01   -   2014-03-31

 Partecipanti

#	participant	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	MACEDONIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND ARTS  Organization address address: Av. Krste Misirkov 2 city: Skopje postcode: 1000 contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Ljupco Cognome: Kocarev Email: send email Telefono: +389 2 2733016 Fax: +389 2 3235423	MK (Skopje)	coordinator	0.00
2	INSTITUT JOZEF STEFAN  Organization address address: Jamova city: LJUBLJANA postcode: 1000 contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Jadran Cognome: Lenarcic Email: send email Telefono: +386 1 477 3513 Fax: +386 1 251 93 85	SI (LJUBLJANA)	participant	0.00
3	KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI  Organization address address: Wilhelminalaan city: DE BILT postcode: 3732 GK contact info Nome: Jeroen Cognome: Sassen Email: send email Telefono: 31302206464 Fax: 31302210407	NL (DE BILT)	participant	0.00
4	POTSDAM INSTITUT FUER KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG  Organization address address: Telegrafenberg city: POTSDAM postcode: 14412 contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Jürgen Cognome: Kurths Email: send email Telefono: +49 331 288 2647 Fax: +49 331 288 2600	DE (POTSDAM)	participant	0.00
5	STICHTING KATHOLIEKE UNIVERSITEIT  Organization address address: GEERT GROOTEPLEIN NOORD city: NIJMEGEN postcode: 6525 EZ contact info Titolo: Mr. Nome: Peter Cognome: Spoormakers Email: send email Telefono: +31 24 3652616 Fax: +31 24 3652126	NL (NIJMEGEN)	participant	0.00
6	UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN  Organization address address: Museplassen city: BERGEN postcode: 5007 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Liv-Grethe Cognome: Gudmundsen Email: send email Telefono: 4755584965 Fax: 4755584991	NO (BERGEN)	participant	0.00
7	UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI  Organization address address: ASHE BUILDING city: CORAL GABLES MIAMI postcode: 33124 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Bonnie Cognome: Townsend Email: send email Telefono: 3054214084 Fax: 3054214876	US (CORAL GABLES MIAMI)	participant	0.00

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

Scientists develop computer models of real, complex systems to increase understanding of their behaviour and make predictions. A prime example is the Earth's climate. Complex climate models are used to compute the climate change in response to expected changes in the composition of the atmosphere due to man-made emissions. Years of research have improved the ability to simulate the climate of the recent past but these models are still far from perfect. The model projections of the globally averaged temperature increase by the end of this century differ by as much as a factor of two, and differ completely in regard to projections for specific regions of the globe.nnCurrent practice commonly averages the predictions of the separate models. Our proposed approach is instead to form a consensus by combining the models into one super model. The super model has learned from past observations how to optimally exchange information among individual models at every moment in time. Results in nonlinear dynamics suggest that the models can be made to synchronize with each other even if only a small amount of information is exchanged, forming a consensus that best represents reality. This innovative approach to reduce uncertainty might be compared to a group of scientists resolving their differences through dialogue, rather than simply voting or averaging their opinions.nnExperts from non-linear dynamics, machine-learning and climate science are brought together within SUMO to produce a climate change simulation with a super model combining state-of-the-art climate models. The super-modelling concept has the potential to provide improved estimates of global and regional climate change, so as to motivate and inform policy decisions. The approach is applicable in other situations where a small number of alternative models exist of the same real-world complex system, as in economy, ecology or biology.