INFLUENZA PREDICTION

Phylogenetic prediction of the evolutionary trajectory of the influenza virus

Coordinatore	THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH    more  Organization address address: OLD COLLEGE, SOUTH BRIDGE city: EDINBURGH postcode: EH8 9YL contact info Titolo: Mr. Nome: David Cognome: Dougal Email: send email Telefono: +44 0131 650 9025
Nazionalità Coordinatore	U codicestrano [U]
Totale costo	209˙033 €
EC contributo	209˙033 €
Programma	FP7-PEOPLE Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013)
Code Call	FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IIF
Funding Scheme	MC-IIF
Anno di inizio	0
Periodo (anno-mese-giorno)	0000-00-00   -   0000-00-00

 Partecipanti

#	participant	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH  Organization address address: OLD COLLEGE, SOUTH BRIDGE city: EDINBURGH postcode: EH8 9YL contact info Titolo: Mr. Nome: David Cognome: Dougal Email: send email Telefono: +44 0131 650 9025	UK (EDINBURGH)	coordinator	209˙033.40

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Seasonal influenza affects a substantial proportion of the human population every year. Due to continued evolution of the influenza virus, a single individual can be repeatedly infected by strains differing in their antigenic makeup. Evolution of the virus population necessitates the updating of the seasonal influenza vaccine. In constructing an influenza vaccine, a particular virus strain must be chosen approximately one year in advance to allow for sufficient quantities of vaccine to be manufactured. The degree of antigenic similarity between this vaccine strain and the population of circulating strains is critically important to public health. Consequently, I propose to adapt the sophisticated methodology of state-of-the-art phylogenetic inference to allow for nuanced predictions of the future evolution of the virus population. Given the genetic sequences of past and current influenza strains, it is my goal to provide an estimate, and an associated degree of confidence, of what strain will predominant in the future. These estimates will draw from multiple characteristics of influenza strains, incorporating patterns of sequence substitution, patterns of population turnover, patterns of geographic movement and patterns of antigenic change. This methodology will be assessed by validating predictions of previous years to historical outcomes. If the resulting methodology is successful in its predictions, then it can be immediately adopted to inform public health decisions. However, if virus evolution is too stochastic, accurate prediction may be an impossibility. Regardless of the accuracy of predictions, the outcomes of this research will have substantial value to the general study of the evolutionary dynamics of virus populations.'