FESTOS

Foresight of Evolving Security Threats Posed by Emerging Technologies

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The FESTOS goal is to identify and assess evolving security threats posed by abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies and new S&T knowledge, and to propose means to reduce their likelihood. Almost all such knowledge can be abused or cause damage through inadequate use. In a free society this should not hinder free generation and exchange of knowledge. As the pace of science-based development accelerates, there is a pressing need for continual scanning of the unfolding technology landscape for potential security threats. Looking ahead to 2030, the foresight study will identify and assess security threats that could stem from future technologies. Robotics, Cognition, New Materials, Nano and Biotechnologies are some of the fields to be scanned. FESTOS will stimulate an 'out of the box' anticipatory thinking and construct threat scenarios by analysing the impact of the identified threats on the background of envisioned “security climates” (societal context of security issues). The threat scenarios will be evaluated in terms of their levels of impact and uncertainty. In conjunction with each scenarios critical early-warning indicators will be identified, namely signals that hint at a growing likelihood of specific scenarios and thus provide basis for possible prevention means. Societal issues will be discussed, as well as the controversial issue of controlled dissemination of scientific knowledge in the context of necessary trade-offs between security and the freedom of research and knowledge. Finally policy recommendations will be derived, aiming at novel means of preparedness. Adequate mix of Foresight methods will be employed, e.g. horizon scanning, weak signals analysis, expert surveys, brainstormings, “futures wheel”, interactive scenario building, STEEPV analysis. Key European stakeholders are addressed in the project’s dissemination plan. The impact of successful foresight in FESTOS could be the initiation of a continuous anticipatory process in Europe.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

While most technologies are developed with good intentions, if they fall into the wrong hands there can be serious consequences. European researchers are investigating the security threats posed by emerging technologies.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

Developments in science and technology can also be used for harmful purposes; computer hackers can cause widespread disruption, while bioterrorists could release a deadly virus into the population.

The aim of the EU-funded project 'Foresight of evolving security threats posed by emerging technologies' (Festos), which began in 2009, is to identify and assess the security threats posed by the abuse of emerging technologies and propose ways of addressing these threats.

The project team has carried out horizon-scanning activities to pick up emerging trends and new drivers of change in the next two decades. The team focused in particular on 80 technologies from the fields of robotics, information and communication technologies (ICTs), new materials, nanotechnologies and biotechnologies.

This analysis was complemented by a global expert survey which uncovered insights regarding the risk and severity of abuse of given technologies. Festos identified three broad categories of potential threat: malicious disruption (i.e. communication jamming); easier access to technologies once reserved for the likes of the military or authorities (i.e. signal interceptors); and misuse of technologies designed for good purposes (i.e. toy robots).

Elsewhere, the Festos project embarked on discussions with stakeholders about how to prevent knowledge falling into the wrong hands. This controversial issue involves a trade-off between security, human rights and the freedom to create knowledge.

Meanwhile the Festos team is continuing to work on threat scenarios and related early warning procedures.