AMAZALERT

Raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land use change in the Amazon

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'AMAZALERT will enable raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate, society, land-use change, vegetation change, water availability and policies in Amazonia. We will: 1) analyze and improve coupled models of global climate and Amazon, land use, vegetation and socio-economic drivers to quantify anthropogenic and climate induced land-use and land cover change and non-linear, irreversible feedbacks among these components 2) assess the role of regional and global policies and societal responses in the Amazon region for altering the trajectory of land-use change in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic factors and finally 3) propose i) an Early Warning System for detecting any imminent irreversible loss of Amazon ecosystem services, ii) policy response strategies to prevent such loss.

We first prioritise the functions of Amazonia and threats to these. We then will analyse uncertainties in biogeochemistry, land cover (vegetation), land-use change and regional hydrology , as well as nonlinear responses and feedbacks using existing and new simulations from state of the art models in which land surface is coupled to global climate. The way in which policies and possible future response strategies of policy makers, trade and economy will affect land-use change will be modelled. This will lead to (A) understanding the impact on and effectiveness of a range of international and regional policy options, including REDD; and (B) identification of both biophysical and socio-economic indicators of irreversible change. AMAZALERT integrates the multidisciplinary knowledge and research of world-renowned, highly influential climate, land cover, land use change scientists and also policy analysts from 14 European and South-American institutions that have been collaborating for 10 to 30 years. Thus, this project can achieve maximum impact on EU (2020 climate goals), international and South-American strategies, including REDD'

Introduzione (Teaser)

An EU-funded project brings together academic and government stakeholders to improve climate models and regional policies on land use in the Amazon basin.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

The Amazon rainforest regulates climate and rainfall in large parts of South America. But without accurate climate models and scientifically informed policy decisions, the region is vulnerable to the effects of runaway deforestation and global climate change. The 'Raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land use change in the Amazon' (http://www.eu-amazalert.org (AMAZALERT)) project was established to address this concern. The project investigates whether current Amazon policies are effective, and it will develop an early warning system (EWS) to detect disastrous ecosystem damage.A number of global and regional climate models were analysed to find out whether they agree with climate data collected during the project. All of the models were shown to underestimate rainfall in the region, but researchers worked to improve the models where possible.To create an EWS, the team first had to analyse all relevant land-use policies and reports in the region. A blueprint EWS is now in the first stages of development, with methods, requirements and potential applications having been considered.AMAZALERT has already improved climate models for rainforest regions, and it has created or expanded climate databases for use in future projects. Further work on the EWS will help to implement science-based policies for land use in the coming decades.>