SMSEE

Stochastic Modeling of Spatially Extended Ecosystems and Ecological and Climate Data Analysis

Coordinatore	BEN-GURION UNIVERSITY OF THE NEGEV    more  Organization address address: Office of the President - Main Campus city: BEER SHEVA postcode: 84105 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Daphna Cognome: Tripto Email: send email Telefono: +972 8 6472435 Fax: +972 8 6472930
Nazionalità Coordinatore	Israel [IL]
Totale costo	100˙000 €
EC contributo	100˙000 €
Programma	FP7-PEOPLE Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013)
Code Call	FP7-PEOPLE-2011-CIG
Funding Scheme	MC-CIG
Anno di inizio	2011
Periodo (anno-mese-giorno)	2011-09-01   -   2015-08-31

 Partecipanti

#	participant	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	BEN-GURION UNIVERSITY OF THE NEGEV  Organization address address: Office of the President - Main Campus city: BEER SHEVA postcode: 84105 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Daphna Cognome: Tripto Email: send email Telefono: +972 8 6472435 Fax: +972 8 6472930	IL (BEER SHEVA)	coordinator	100˙000.00

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The coupling between ecosystems and the climate implies that quantifying their dynamics is crucial for our attempts to prevent undesired changes in our environment. The main goal of this project is to use non-linear, stochastic modeling in the context of climate and ecosystems dynamics. This proposal combines methods from statistical physics, non-linear dynamics, game theory and random dynamical systems to study the various effects of noise on climate and ecosystems dynamics. The specific goals of this project are:(i) Using the record of past climate observations to build dynamically-weighted forecasting ensembles adjusted to specific climate variables. These ensembles will enable inter-comparison of the models. Using the sequential compound decision method will reduce the uncertainties of climate predictions. (ii) Investigating the dynamics of non-linear vegetation models, in the homoclinic snaking regime, in the presence of global and local noise. Early-warning signals and the possibility of desertification not through critical transition but through a series of transitions between localized states will be studied. (iii) Analyzing data describing the process of vegetation mortality under controlled and natural drought conditions. Spatial and temporal patterns in the mortality process will be studied and related to quantitative models. Theoretical models will be developed and tested against the data. The expected results of this research will not only improve our understanding of climate and ecosystems dynamics but will also advance fundamental physics research such as the interplay between complex non-linear dynamics and stochastic effects.'