DEROGUE WAVES

Deterministic Forecasting of Rogue Waves in the Ocean

Coordinatore	UNIVERSITY OF KEELE    more  Organization address address: KEELE UNIVERSITY FINANCE DPT city: KEELE postcode: ST5 5BG contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Victor Cognome: Shrira Email: send email Telefono: +44 (0)1782 733267 Fax: +44 (0)1782 734268
Nazionalità Coordinatore	United Kingdom [UK]
Totale costo	239˙289 €
EC contributo	239˙289 €
Programma	FP7-PEOPLE Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013)
Code Call	FP7-PEOPLE-2009-IIF
Funding Scheme	MC-IIF
Anno di inizio	2010
Periodo (anno-mese-giorno)	2010-08-01   -   2012-07-31

 Partecipanti

#	participant	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	UNIVERSITY OF KEELE  Organization address address: KEELE UNIVERSITY FINANCE DPT city: KEELE postcode: ST5 5BG contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Victor Cognome: Shrira Email: send email Telefono: +44 (0)1782 733267 Fax: +44 (0)1782 734268	UK (KEELE)	coordinator	239˙289.60

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Rogue or freak waves are short wave groups of anomalously high and steep waves (compared to ordinary sea waves) which have propensity to come seemingly out of nowhere. Such waves represent real danger even to the largest ships and offshore structures. Rogue waves cannot be prevented, but a better prediction could save lives. The present day forecasting of rogue waves is PROBABILISTIC, i.e. only the probability of freak wave occurrence in a given place and time is found as a result of wind wave modeling. The project is aimed at developing a radically new way of rogue wave forecasting – DETERMINISTIC FORECASTING. The main idea is as follows: although the sea waves are inherently random there exist situations where wave motion is constrained in a special way (e.g. wave on currents, above certain bottom topography), which decreases the number of “effective” spatial dimensions and makes deterministic forecasting possible. Such situations are characterized by particularly high risk of rogue waves. The objectives of the project are to fill the gaps in understanding of fundamental mechanisms of rogue waves and upon this basis to improve their prediction. The Fellow, one of the top scientists of his generation, is uniquely qualified to adapt the most advanced mathematical approaches developed for weakly nonlinear models to describe realistic rogue waves. The research will employ: (i) advanced analytical methods, both exact and asymptotic ones (making use of the expertise of the Host); (ii) a uniquely complete range of 2D and 3D numerical models from weakly to fully nonlinear (mostly developed by the Fellow); (iii) laboratory, in-situ and meteorological data will be used for validation of the models. The developed techniques will enable one to predict not only a high probability of a freak wave, but also WHEN, WHERE and WHAT KIND OF ROGUE WAVE to expect. This will dramatically reduce the risks involved for lives, ships, on-shore and offshore structures, and environment.'