PACT

PAthways for Carbon Transitions

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Most «business-as-usual scenarios» built up till now have shown that hydrocarbon resources scarcity and the growing release of greenhouse gases will bring the world far away from sustainability over the next decades. Then, deep changes in behaviours away from «BAU» are unavoidable long before the turn of the century in a move towards a post-carbon society. Urbanisation and mobility are probably the domains where these changes might be the most important and they will be necessarily driven and limited by socio-economic and cultural forces that will dominate the century. They will induce further deep changes in behaviours of consumers and producers and are likely to deeply impact the use and production of bulk materials, large energy consumers and GHG emitters. To address these challenges, key milestones were defined by the EU : - A 20% reduction (minimum) of CO2 emissions by 2020 (compared to 1990) in Europe - A reduction of the GHG emissions by 2050 and after, so as to limit the increase of the temperature due to climatic change within 2°C. In this framework, the PACT project objective is to provide strategic decision-support information to decision makers to achieve these milestones. It will focus on 3 themes : - What shape the energy demand, and how this should evolve towards post-carbon concept, from the infrastructures viewpoint, in relation to urbanisation and land-use schemes, and that of the life-styles and behaviours, in relation to the available technologies. - The question of urbanisation and land-use from the renewable energy perspective, including that of the systems. - The role of social forces, actors, stakeholders in the transition process. PACT will address these issues in two phases: first, by developing the necessary analytical and conceptual framework, second in attempting to quantify scenarios of post-carbon societies at EU and world level by 2050 and beyond, using enhanced versions of the VLEEM and POLES models.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Major changes are necessary in order to achieve a sustainable post-carbon society by 2050. Scientists are evaluating various energy demand scenarios together with socioeconomic factors to support decision-making.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

The world is faced with dwindling fossil fuel reserves and an increase in the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is now widely accepted to play a leading role in global climate change. Sustainability is diminishing at a rapid pace, highlighting the urgent need for adoption of corrective measures on a large scale. The European Commission has set important milestones for emissions reductions, in part being addressed by the ambitious EU-funded 'Pathways for carbon transitions' (PACT) project.

Partners are evaluating factors that play a role in a sustainable post-carbon society to provide strategic support for reaching EU goals within the next 50 years. Topics analysed cover how goods and foods will be produced, the types of energy that will be available, where people will live and how they will move. Three different scenarios are being investigated to explore routes to a post-carbon EU and their effects on GHG emissions. The main factors distinguishing the different models were demography, economic growth, world tensions involving resources and climate, policies, behaviours and lifestyles, and technologies.

Partners first developed analytical and conceptual frameworks. They are now quantifying the scenarios using adaptations of the very long-term energy environment (VLEEM) and the prospective outlook on long-term energy systems (POLES) models. In particular, VLEEM focused on the energy demand in various parts of the world in relation to socioeconomic factors, not demand for electricity or gas. It included factors such as demography, access to education, changes in the structure of time use and, by integrating POLES, more variables were considered. The models were upgraded and adapted to represent the urbanisation and land-use effects. Combined use of the two models required development of an interface between energy services as defined by VLEEM and demand functions as defined by POLES.

PACT is addressing issues of energy demand and its relation to urbanisation and land-use schemes, lifestyles and behaviours, and available technologies. With careful assessment of the role of social forces, actors and stakeholders in the transition to a post-carbon society by 2050, PACT plans to deliver strategic decision support for a sustainable post-carbon EU road plan.