BOREX

"Ecological response to environmental change during Boreal mass extinctions: past, present, and future?"

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The UN is discussing a system of governance of the world’s oceans, amid fears of marine extinction. The greatest threats are warming, oxygen depletion, acidification, and eutrophication. But what does Earth’s past reveal about its future? Parallels can be drawn with the Middle and end-Permian, and Triassic-Jurassic extinctions, in which all aforementioned stresses are implicated. Intense research has revealed much about biotic response to stress but most knowledge derives from the tropics, where the most diverse communities lived. Far less is known about Boreal latitudes. The future of such settings is uncertain, as models struggle to predict what the rate and consequence of change will be near the poles. Are Boreal communities among the most, or least threatened? Earth is usually capable of regulating its climate, but did positive feedback between climate change and biogeochemical cycles reach “tipping points” such that past extinctions were inevitable? Could this happen again? Have Boreal faunas and floras suffered more, or less than tropical counterparts in the past? Are they more, or less at risk now? This project tests the Boreal response to environmental change in three mass extinctions between 260-200 million years ago. Were these communities adapted to stressful conditions and fare better than their tropical counterparts? Or did their niche adaptation leave them susceptible? Extinction patterns and concurrent environmental conditions will be ascertained through fieldwork, fossil and geochemical studies of sections in Spitsbergen. Comparison with tropical communities will reveal similarities and differences in response to change. The necessary long-term study of diverse groups and settings is made possible by extensive low-latitude field collections of the applicant, and comparable data available in the Paleobiology Database. This rigorous test of past environmental stress-extinction links will inform current approaches to the protection of Boreal ecosystems.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Studies of past mass extinctions are helping scientists and policymakers to determine how best to preserve marine ecosystems based in higher latitudes.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

Amidst growing concerns over the mass extinction of marine species, the United Nations is discussing a system of governance for the world's oceans. Can three mass extinctions between 260 and 200 million years ago help show what the future may hold in store?

Vigorous research has revealed much about how an ecosystem responds to stress. However, most of this work has been conducted in the tropics, where biodiversity is at its greatest. Much less is known about the impacts on higher latitudes of our planet.

The BOREX project determined whether marine ecosystems suffered more due to past environmental changes at high latitudes, mid latitudes or in the tropics. To achieve this, scientists collected data from the island of Spitsbergen in the Arctic Ocean, where the records of mass extinctions have been investigated.

Researchers compared their findings with existing evidence from lower latitudes to discover if there were latitudinal patterns of extinction and recovery. They also wished to determine if climatic 'tipping points' coincided with extinctions. Their findings will help improve predictions of the response of ecosystems to future climates.

Fossils from across the Middle Permian and Permian-Triassic extinctions were collected from key geological sites in Spitsbergen and examined. Geochemical and palaeontological studies indicated that the Middle Permian extinction was at least as severe (and extremely abrupt) in the high latitudes. The end-Permian extinction may have struck first in the high latitudes. The total loss of carbonates in the region is consistent with ocean acidification stresses, which are particularly threatening to cooler waters of the Arctic regions (cool water absorbs more CO2).

These findings will have significant implications for scientists working on past and present environmental change and may affect ocean governance policy. The implication is that high-latitude ecosystems could suffer more as a result of recent and future climate change and in particular acidification stresses. Therefore, the best policy may be to invest now in added protection for these regions to ensure a healthy, high-latitude marine ecosystem.