PLANETS

Probabilistic Long-term Assessment of New Energy Technology Scenarios

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The goal of PLANETS is to devise robust scenarios for the evolution of energy technologies in the next 50 years. This is achieved by means of an ensemble of quantitative and analytical tools that are designed to foresee the best technological hedging policy in response to future environmental and energy policies. Focused technological assessments will provide the necessary guidance for technology availability and competitiveness. Given the long term nature of the analysis, not to mention the many uncertainties surrounding the natural, technological and socio-economic determinants, the scenarios development will be accompanied by probabilistic and stochastic modelling analysis to quantify the most determinant sensitivities. To this purpose, a suite of state-of-the-art energy-economy-climate models will be brought together. The model portfolio spans varieties of regional coverage, technological detail and economic interrelations. Dedicated integrated assessments will explore the technological options that are most likely to play a role over the time horizon under investigation, and the critical issues that are needed for their competitive deployment. PLANETS will research the future of energy systems by examining environmental and energy policies at the European and global level in their capacity to influence the deployment of new technologies with respect to a mutually agreed Business-As-Usual scenario. This project will also analyse the linkage between European and world perspectives of energy technology futures and forecasts, in particular in terms of issues like economic competitiveness and the capacity to export clean technology adoption. Finally, PLANETS will aim to broadly disseminate EU energy technology futures, by setting up an informative scenarios website and acquainting a large number of stakeholders – from science, industry, government and so forth – with peer-reviewed publications and a final general-audience conference.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Quantitative and analytical tools are being used to devise robust scenarios for the evolution of energy technologies over the next 50 years.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

Climate change, declining stocks of fossil fuels and political instability all threaten energy security in the EU. Scientists are therefore attempting to draw up clear energy scenarios for the next 50 years to help policymakers develop the best environmental and energy policies, through the 'Probabilistic long-term assessment of new energy technology scenarios' (Planets) project.

Researchers will use quantitative and analytical tools to predict the best technological hedging policy in response to future environmental and energy policies, while technological assessments will provide the necessary guidance on technology availability and competitiveness. Given the long-term nature of the analysis and the many uncertainties surrounding the natural, technological and socioeconomic determinants, the scenarios will be accompanied by probabilistic modelling analysis.

The Planets project will examine how all environmental and energy factors at a European and global level may influence the deployment of new technologies with respect to a business-as-usual scenario. This project will also analyse the links between European and world perspectives of energy technology futures and forecasts, in particular in terms of issues like economic competitiveness and the capacity to export clean technology, including carbon capture and storage.