PACEMOD

Development of integrated modelling techniques to assess impacts of climate change on pathogens and water quality

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Dr Rory Coffey graduated with an honours primary degree in Agricultural Science in 2003, he subsequently went on to complete a research masters and PhD in University College Dublin with a focus on Biological Systems Engineering. He is currently working as a Postdoctoral researcher in Ireland. The researcher is requesting funds for 3 years under the guidance of Professor Shane Ward, University College Dublin, Ireland. A two year outgoing phase will be spent working with Dr Mary Leigh Wolfe at the Centre for Watershed Studies, Biological Systems Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, USA. Knowledge acquired during the outgoing phase will be transferred to the EU in year 3 during the return phase when Dr Coffey will rejoin the Bioresources Research Centre at University College Dublin. The overall scientific aim of the project is to apply watershed modelling techniques to integrate the effects of climate change on waterborne pathogenic organisms and transport of such substances to water sources (groundwater and surface water). Ongoing work in these areas is still in its infancy, and the project proposes a bottom-up approach to investigation. As the project progresses, the emphasis will shift from water quality monitoring techniques, theoretical modelling and simulation (relying on third country host expertise) to model development, application and evaluation within the EU (using home institutions expertise). The project will be completed with a view to environmental application and development of new protocols for water source protection (taking advantage of the home institution's experience in training, communication, scientific management, intellectual property, etc.)'

Introduzione (Teaser)

A recent project has modelled how land-use and climate change will influence microbial activity in American and European catchment areas.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

Climate and land-use change affects the distribution, prevalence and human impact of waterborne pathogens. However, without a clear understanding of how organisms are transported within an ecosystem, these changes will be difficult to predict and prevent.

In response to this challenge, the EU-funded PACEMOD (Development of integrated modelling techniques to assess impacts of climate change on pathogens and water quality) project modelled the transport and fate of microbes in river systems to examine the impacts of environmental change. The project also tested and validated the models in Europe and the United States.

As part of the research, scientists received training in the relevant advanced modelling and geographic information system software. They also learned new sampling and analysis techniques.

At the same time, PACEMOD conducted a theoretical investigation of key environmental change impacts on microbes in catchment areas. This information, coupled with real-world data, was used to develop a model of microbial transport and fate in response to environmental change for several rivers.

These models revealed that land use in coming years will have as much of an impact on microbial counts as climate change. PACEMOD also used the models to design adaptation measures to help these rivers stick to health regulations around water quality.

Researchers have shown that models can be used to predict microbial distribution in a catchment area, and how that distribution will change under external pressures. This is an important step towards better management of fresh water sources.