SOLFORRENEW

A comprehensive framework for high-resolution assessment and short-term forecasting of the solar resource for renewable energy applications

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The foreseen depletion of the fossil resources is forcing us to seek for new energy springs but the everyday issue of the climate change claims for non-pollutant solutions. In addition, it is expected that the demand for electricity will strongly increase between 2006 and 2030. Therefore, it is unavoidable the transition to more and more renewable energy shares. In this scenario, solar and wind energy are probably the only energy solutions that are acceptable enough to sustain the planet’s long term requirements. However, as solar and wind energies are strongly dependent on highly variable weather, increased penetration rates will lead to strong fluctuations in the electricity grid. Therefore, renewable energies cannot guarantee the amount of energy which is requested by the users and secondary support energy sources are required. Consequently, accurate assessments and forecasts of the resources are pivotal for optimal sitting of the facilities and improved planning and operating decisions. In this proposal we address the development of the methods for assessing and forecasting the solar resource using Numerical Weather Prediction models, the current state of the art in weather modelling. The outgoing phase will be conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) of the USA, one of the foremost centers in weather modelling. The fellow will acquire high-quality research training, NCAR’s work methodologies, organization, transfer of knowledge and synergy with university and private sector. Reintegration will increase the perspectives available on this topic in the EU and the experience will be used in future management positions of the fellow. This project will help to promote the solar production in Europe and to increase its penetration in the electricity grid. This proposal will help to meet the increasing demand of electricity, to decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, and also to overcome the dependency of energy imports from outside Europe.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Solar system operators are required to make critical judgements to match loads with the power available at any given time. Accurate knowledge of the present as well as future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

The energy output of concentrating solar power systems and photovoltaic systems is among the most difficult variables to forecast. Topography, clouds and aerosols all affect solar energy predictions. In other words, reliable weather forecasting is essential for ensuring that solar energy technologies meet clean energy goals.

Funded by the EU, the project SOLFORRENEW (A comprehensive framework for high-resolution assessment and short-term forecasting of the solar resource for renewable energy applications) aimed to improve weather predictions crucial for energy management.

Project activities included active engagement with scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, the United States. NCAR is one of the lead organisations developing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, testing and distributing the code to weather research communities.

In its latest versions, the WRF includes different short-wave solar irradiance models for users to select. One of them is the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG). SOLFORRENEW used RRTMG to estimate global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance and diffuse irradiance.

The model runs were fed with aerosol and water vapour observations from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite. The role of aerosols was investigated by running the model with and without aerosols.

Under clear sky conditions, the main factors driving surface solar irradiance are aerosols, water vapour, surface albedo and ozone. Because the variability of surface albedo and ozone is small, these were fairly well approximated using seasonal climatologies already included in the WRF.

However, accurately predicting the climate system requires knowledge of the role of aerosols in the Earth's energy budget, as this is described in numerical weather models. With the research carried out in the SOLFORRENEW project, the WRF will become a powerful tool for solar energy now casting and forecasting.