RESERVING

Stochastic reserving based upon mathematical statistics

Coordinatore	THE CITY UNIVERSITY    more  Organization address address: NORTHAMPTON SQUARE city: LONDON postcode: EC1V 0HB contact info Titolo: Mr. Nome: Jaideep Cognome: Mukherjee Email: send email Telefono: 442070000000 Fax: 442070000000
Nazionalità Coordinatore	United Kingdom [UK]
Totale costo	278˙807 €
EC contributo	278˙807 €
Programma	FP7-PEOPLE Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013)
Code Call	FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IEF
Funding Scheme	MC-IEF
Anno di inizio	2012
Periodo (anno-mese-giorno)	2012-09-01   -   2014-08-31

 Partecipanti

#	participant	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	THE CITY UNIVERSITY  Organization address address: NORTHAMPTON SQUARE city: LONDON postcode: EC1V 0HB contact info Titolo: Mr. Nome: Jaideep Cognome: Mukherjee Email: send email Telefono: 442070000000 Fax: 442070000000	UK (LONDON)	coordinator	278˙807.40

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The aim of my proposal is to develop a coherent methodology based on classical mathematical statistics for the important area of reserving, transforming it into state-of-the-art mathematical statistics. In doing this, I will use my academic knowledge of modern mathematical statistics, in particular my extended experience in modern smoothing theory.

The objectives are: - To develop models based on reported numbers of claims and aggregated claim payments, which provide better insights into the underlying drivers of the claims data - To investigate the use of external data to stabilise the predictions of claims liabilities - To incorporate models which allow for claims inflation in calendar, development year and underwriting year direction - To develop new bootstrap methodologies in order to obtain predictive distributions - Finally to transfer all the above results into a continuous data setting based on structured smoothing.

Everything I proposed in this Fellowship is directly linked to what practical actuaries are doing today. They can follow step by step how their current reserves are being changed when adding more and more features of our new methodologies. One can therefore understand the difference between the innovative reserving methods of this project and current methods. It is expected that the suggested working stream will lead to popular methods with a good chance of quickly catching on in the industry. One major global insurer is already advocating such work in light of the increasing regulatory pressure on improved reserving methodologies formulated via Solvency II and it is hoped more will follow when the work develops and gets more widely accessible to practitioners.'