FLUMODCONT
Modelling the spread of pandemic influenza and strategies for its containment and mitigation
| Coordinatore | UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TRENTO
Organization address
address: VIA CALEPINA 14 contact info |
| Nazionalità Coordinatore | Italy [IT] |
| Totale costo | 2˙880˙344 € |
| EC contributo | 2˙191˙546 € |
| Programma | FP7-HEALTH
Specific Programme "Cooperation": Health |
| Code Call | FP7-HEALTH-2007-A |
| Funding Scheme | CP-FP |
| Anno di inizio | 2008 |
| Periodo (anno-mese-giorno) | 2008-06-01 - 2011-05-31 |
Partecipanti
| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TRENTO
Organization address
address: VIA CALEPINA 14 contact info |
IT (TRENTO) | coordinator | 0.00 |
| 2 |
CLALIT HEALTH SERVICES
Organization address
address: ARLOZOROV STREET 101 contact info |
IL (TEL AVIV) | participant | 0.00 |
| 3 |
FONDAZIONE BRUNO KESSLER
Organization address
address: VIA SANTA CROCE 77 contact info |
IT (TRENTO) | participant | 0.00 |
| 4 |
HEALTH PROTECTION AGENCY HPA
Organization address
address: Central Office - 7th Floor, Holborn Gate - High Holborn 330 contact info |
UK (LONDON) | participant | 0.00 |
| 5 |
IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE
Organization address
address: SOUTH KENSINGTON CAMPUS EXHIBITION ROAD contact info |
UK (LONDON) | participant | 0.00 |
| 6 |
INSTITUTUL DE SANATATE PUBLICA
Organization address
address: Str Dr Leonte nr 1-3 contact info |
RO (BUCURESTI) | participant | 0.00 |
| 7 |
ISTITUTO SUPERIORE DI SANITA
Organization address
address: Viale Regina Elena 299 contact info |
IT (ROMA) | participant | 0.00 |
| 8 |
RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEIDEN MILIEU*NATIONAL INSTITUTEFOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENTEN
Organization address
address: Antonie Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9 contact info |
NL (BILTHOVEN) | participant | 0.00 |
| 9 |
TERVEYDEN JA HYVINVOINNIN LAITOS
Organization address
address: MANNERHEIMINTIE 166 contact info |
FI (HELSINKI) | participant | 0.00 |
| 10 |
UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
Organization address
address: Via Sarfatti 25 contact info |
IT (MILANO) | participant | 0.00 |
| 11 |
UNIVERSITE PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE - PARIS 6
Organization address
address: Place Jussieu 4 contact info |
FR (PARIS) | participant | 0.00 |
Mappa
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Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)
'The public heath threat posed by novel strains of influenza A gaining transmissibility in people and causing a human pandemic has been recognised as potentially catastrophic, especially since the emergence and global spread of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus. Several mathematical models have been developed to evaluate patterns of spatio-temporal spread of infection, and the effectiveness of various containment strategies. However, these require significant improvements, elaboration, and application, in order to better inform EU-wide policy and responses. Key to the determination of the spatio-temporal patterns of pandemic influenza are data on contact patterns, such as those that are being acquired by the EU projects INFTRANS and POLYMOD. Building on these projects, we will collect detailed data on population structure, workplace sizes, and population movement; while also doing new surveys focused on identifying potential behavioral super-spreaders, and attitudes towards, and potential behavioural changes during, a pandemic. A suite of mathematical models, ranging from deterministic and stochastic differential equations to individual-based microsimulations, will be developed and integrated; taking into account all of the new data that is acquired above. The models will be validated against data on past pandemics and on the dynamics of seasonal and endemic infectious diseases. The effectiveness of control/treatment strategies, including measures to increase social distance (school and workplaces closure, travel reductions), quarantine, antiviral prophylaxis and mass or targeted vaccination, which also consider contact tracing protocols, will be evaluated through these models. An essential ingredient to the usefulness of detailed models is the possibility of updating them on the basis of new information or on the patterns of an emerging epidemic; hence a specific effort will be devoted to develop modular and efficient algorithms allowing for real-time analysis.'
Introduzione (Teaser)
Planning ahead in terms of threatening infections such as influenza was the aim of the European consortium working on the Flumodcont project. By modelling the spread of an influenza pandemic, scientists believed they could determine the expected course of infection and design containment strategies.